Sunday, February 06, 2011

Up 65% in Last 10 Months in my Soft Commodities Investment. Will Likely Rotate into McDonalds as Grain Prices Peak.

I bought into the iPath Grains (JJG) ETF on April 5th of last year at $34.18 / share. On Friday, shares traded at $56.20. This is a gain of 64.4% over the 10 months. Of course these gains are only on paper.

I spent part of the afternoon contemplating what I would do with my money as I scaled out of this ETF. I spent some time comparing charts of JJG against a few stocks and happened upon an interesting comparison against McDonalds (MCD). See chart JJG vs. MCD. Looking from 12/8/10 til present and you'll see that the two stocks are moving inversely to each other.

So, unless we have a good stock market correction, my current plan is to ride out JJG for a few more bucks and to start scaling out of JJG between $61 and $71.

I suspect JJG should hit this gate of $61 - $71 within the next couple of months prior to crops being planted. As I scale out, I am planning on moving my funds into McDonalds. I don't think that McDonalds is going to run up like a rocket ship; however, I feel that McDonalds should trounce the S&P 500 after grains and other commodities (e.g. COW) peak and start trending lower. Plus, McDonalds 3.3% yield should provide a level of safety in our current lofty market levels.


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Jason said...

McDonald's is a great investment. I've been telling all my clients to buy some stock in it. It's a solid company that just keeps growing and each quarter, there are earnings. Did you know that they only reported quarterly losses only once since they've been public?