Saturday, October 28, 2006

Can bid style (competitive bid vs. autobid) on help determine likelihood of late payment?

Perhaps, people with higher likelihoods of making late payments or defaulting on prosper loans are more desperate and in greater need for fast loan funding. As a result, borrowers may use the autobid feature to help ensure their loan request(s) get funded.

Like my last analysis of pictures in delinquent loans, I went back to the prosper borrower stats at "Eric's Credit Community." I looked at all of the group sponsored delinquent loans and found that there were 161 delinquent group loans with valid hyperlinks.

Of these, I found that there were only 36 competitively bid delinquent loans and a whopping 125 delinquent autobid loans. ALL OTHER THINGS EQUAL, it appears that the bidding style has some merit in determining likelihood of late payment.

Based on the above numbers, late payments occurred with 347% greater frequency when the borrower used the autobid feature.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on ALL OTHER THINGS EQUAL (ceterus paribus for statisticians). In all likelihood, there are a number of other extenuating circumstances that also contribute to greater likelihoods of late payment.

Recommendation: Consider using this as a supplement to credit report analysis.

1 comment:

Finance Junkie said...

Autobids have been one of my favorite ways for sweeting my loan portfolio ROI/avg interest rate. I'll continue to bid on them; however, I will scrutinize them a little more.